Ventsislav Vasilev and Radka Vasileva
The study explores some methods used to assess risk and determine optimal retention levels in motor casco insurance, specifically focusing on comparing the three statistical techniques: Chebyshev’s Inequality, the Monte Carlo Simulation, and Normal Distribution. By utilizing historical claims data from the Bulgarian insurance market published by the Financial Supervision Commission, the study investigates the probability of the claim exceeding retention thresholds and compares the accuracy and precision of each method. While Chebyshev’s inequality provides a conservative estimate, the Monte Carlo simulation offers a probabilistic approach that models various outcomes, whereas normal distribution assumes a symmetrical loss pattern. The research aims to identify which method offers the most reliable estimation for setting retention levels in motor casco insurance. By evaluating the accuracy of each technique against real claims data, the study aims to inform insurers about the approach which optimizes their risk management decisions best. The research shows that the Monte Carlo simulation offers the most accurate and reliable estimates for motor casco retention decisions due to its flexibility in modelling various loss scenarios.
Farial Faizi1, Mariam Sawas1, Dina Abohassan1, Ilija Stojanović1 and Marko Selaković2
The economic rivalry between the BRICS countries and the G7 nations has been a central theme in global development for decades. This study seeks to compare the GDP growth dynamics between the BRICS and G7 countries, while examining the differential impact of the key macroeconomic indicators on their economic trajectories. To achieve this, statistical methodologies, including independent t-tests and ANOVA, were utilized so as to compare the group-level differences, while the tests of between-subjects effects were applied to assess the variations in the effects of the regression coefficients for the macroeconomic factors influencing GDP growth. The study posits that the distinct economic structures of the BRICS countries and the G7 nations lead to varying macroeconomic conditions which shape their growth patterns in distinct ways. The findings of this research offer actionable insights into the strongest and weakest determinants of the GDP growth within these economic blocs. It contributes to a broader discourse on global economic competition, offering evidence-based recommendations for balanced growth strategies.
Paskal Zhelev1 and Olga Malashenkova2
This study investigates the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as a regional economic integration bloc, analyzing its evolution, trade integration, and industrial policy framework amid shifting global dynamics. Established in 2015, the EAEU has encountered structural challenges, geopolitical upheavals, and intensifying sanctions, especially following the war in Ukraine. These pressures have disrupted trade flows, widened economic disparities among member states, and tested the bloc’s cohesion. The paper emphasizes the fact that enhancing competitiveness is critical for the resilience of the EAEU, with the industrial policy serving as the cornerstone of this effort. Employing trade indicators, such as intra-regional trade shares and the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, the study highlights uneven integration and dependence on resource-based exports. It evaluates the institutional framework of the EAEU’s industrial policy, focusing on subsidy harmonization, value-added industry development, and coordination between national and regional priorities. Despite persistent institutional weaknesses and external pressures, the findings suggest that fostering industrial modernization and achieving better synergy between domestic policies and regional ambitions could strengthen the bloc’s resilience and global competitiveness.
Iva Glišić i Slavica Manić
Ekonomska literatura obiluje radovima koji analiziraju efekte priliva stranih direktnih investicija (SDI) ili uticaj kvaliteta institucija na ekonomsku aktivnost. Navedeno se ne može tvrditi za studije koje proučavaju uticaj institucionalnog kvaliteta na privlačenje SDI i/ili zajednički uticaj ova dva faktora na ekonomski rast, posebno ako je reč o Zapadnom Balkanu. Naša analiza pokriva pet zemalja ovog regiona, u periodu 2007-2022. i ima za cilj da doprinese relevantnoj literaturi upravo u tom pogledu. Podaci panela modelirani su korišćenjem metode uopštenih najmanjih kvadrata. Rezultat finalnog (od tri ocenjena) modela implicira neočekivan pozitivan efekat manje kvalitetnog institucionalnog okruženja na ekonomsku aktivnost kroz kanal SDI. Potencijalno objašnjenje ovakvog rezultata jeste teza da „slabije“ zakonodavstvo (posebno ekološko) u zemljama Zapadnog Balkana privlači upravo one SDI koje uz ekonomski rast produkuju i negativne eksterne efekte. Dodatno, ovakav nalaz ukazuje na potrebu razmatranja dugoročnih rizika po ekonomski rast koji se pretežno oslanja na ovu vrstu SDI.
Đorđe Kotarac1 i Zoran Popović2
U nizu teorijsko-metodoloških istraživanja potvrđena je teza da akumulacija fizičkog kapitala samo delimično objašnjava kretanje stopa ekonomskog rasta zemalja. Fokus istraživača i kreatora ekonomskih politika se pomera sa fizičkog (PC) na ljudski kapital (HC) kao determinantu privrednog razvoja. Predmet ovog rada je analiza uticaja HC na postizanje viših stopa rasta dohotka per capita. Prema “Lisabonskoj strategiji“ i strategiji “Evropa 2020“, HC se postavlja na pijedestal po važnosti, a sve u cilju dovođenja EU-27 na mesto najkonkurentnijeg tržišta sveta. Empirijski deo rada podrazumeva panel regresioni model. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju na signifikantan uticaj HC na povećanje dohotka per capita na uzorku 10 zemalja Centralne i Istočne Evrope. Doprinos ovog rada se odnosi na popunjavanje praznine u naučnoj literaturi u ispitivanju uticaja HC na rast dohotka per capita zemalja Evrope. Zaključne smernice rada podrazumevaju isticanje značaja investiranja u HC kao efikasnog instrumenta za postizanje većeg privrednog razvoja zemalja.
Andrija Popović1, Andreja Todorović1 i Vladan Vučić2
U ovom radu se analizira odnos privrednog rasta, konkurentnosti i inovacija u cirkularnoj ekonomiji u 27 zemalja EU u periodu od 2011. do 2020. godine. U radu se kroz deskriptivnu statistiku, analizu glavnih komponenti (PCA), regresiju panel podataka i klaster analizu ispituje kako ključni ekonomski indikatori, kao što su BDP, BDP po glavi stanovnika i bruto formacija stalnog kapitala, utiču na performanse cirkularne ekonomije. Rezultati ukazuju na pozitivnu korelaciju između ukupnog privrednog rasta i cirkularne konkurentnosti, iako bogatije zemlje nisu uvek lideri u cirkularnoj tranziciji. Analizom se naglašava potreba za prilagođenim, specifičnim nacionalnim politikama kako bi se promovisale održive prakse cirkularne ekonomije, posebno u manje razvijenim privredama. Istraživanje pruža vredne uvide tvorcima politika koji nastoje da uravnoteže privredni rast sa održivošću.
Milena Jakšić
Sveska 3 Volumen 27 Godište 2025 naučnog časopisa Ekonomski horizonti, nakon sprovedenog dvostruko anonimnog recenzentskog postupka, sadrži tri izvorna naučna članka, tri pregledna članka i Pregled autora i naslova svih priloga publikovanih u Časopisu u 2025. godini.