Emilija Janković
A large number of papers indicate stylized facts related to the business cycles of different countries. However, the business cycle is a very complex phenomenon, which is not easy to measure and interpret. Therefore, in addition to the gross domestic product (GDP) as a standard measure of the business cycle, it is useful to analyze the cyclical behavior of the GDP components, the labor market variables, as well as nominal variables. This paper attempts to identify patterns in their movements during the period from the first quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2023. The goal is to provide a general overview of business cycles in contemporary developments within the European Union as a whole, Germany being the most developed EU country, with reference to the Republic of Serbia. Detailed statistical time series analysis was used to examine stylized facts, as well as the volatility of these variables, their correlation with the GDP, and their persistence. The general conclusion implies that the business cycle of Serbia does not lag behind more developed countries. Some observations were also made of the common tendencies that could be valid in most cases.
Mohammed Shuaibu and Usman Gana
Nigeria’s poor non-oil export performance has been the focal point of the growth policy discourse since the 1970s, but the role of emerging driving factors has remained significantly less understood. Thus, this study explores the determinants of Nigeria’s non-oil exports by explicitly considering trade credit and digital payment systems. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model and the monthly data from 2010 to 2023 so as to achieve its objective. The results show that increased trade credit and better e-payment systems significantly improve the non-oil export sector’s performance. The one implication of this finding is that increasing trade credit and improving e-payment systems may serve as another alternative to unlocking and boosting Nigeria’s non-oil export sector’s potential. Therefore, the paper concludes that, with the promotion of trade credit and an increased use of e-payments, Nigeria can improve its non-oil export performance in order to foster sustainable economic growth.
This paper investigates the effects of RCEP trade creation and trade diversion on China and its sectors, as well as the impact of imports and exports on provinces. The World Bank’s World Integrated Trade Solution Software for Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (WITS-SMART) tool with the 2020 data, alongside the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables and the Chinese Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) tables based on the 2017 data under two scenarios. The results of the study indicate that trade growth with Japan and South Korea is significant, on the one hand, whereas the trade effects with the ASEAN nations and regions such as Australia and New Zealand are relatively low, on the other. The research emphasizes the disparities between various regions in China, demonstrating that the Eastern coastal provinces obtain more trade benefits than the Central and Western areas. The study highlights the importance of implementing the policies encouraging collaboration in high-growth sectors and developing tailored strategies for regional advancement.
The list contains the authors and titles of all contributions published in the Volume 26 of the Journal.
In this paper, the corporate entrepreneurship concept is complemented by the contributions from planned organizational change models. Resulting from entrepreneurial endeavors undertaken by both individuals and groups within established organizations, corporate entrepreneurship leads to innovation or the regeneration of the existing and the creation of new businesses within the existing companies. However, there is little research in the change process through which entrepreneurial endeavors are realized. This paper seeks to close this gap by synthesizing the contributions of the most cited planned organizational change models, resulting in the activities or steps that, as the change agent, the internal entrepreneur should undertake in order to implement a corporate entrepreneurship project. Based on Lewin’s model (unfreezing – move – refreezing), these activities include creating the awareness of the necessity of change, creating and communicating a vision, preparing for changes, implementing changes, facilitating changes, the institutionalizing and monitoring of changes. Thereby, the corporate entrepreneurship concept is complemented and made more realistic in practice.
Forecasting financial distress in companies is very significant bearing in mind the complexity and dynamics of the modern business environment. Accordingly, the subject matter of this research study is the determinants of the occurrence of the financial distress that may lead a company to bankruptcy. The study is aimed at determining the interdependence (correlation) between certain determinants of the occurrence of financial distress and the indicators of the probability of the occurrence of financial distress and considering the difference in the probability of the occurrence of financial distress before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Serbia. The research was conducted on a sample of 73 publicly traded companies, of which 22 belong to the group of big companies, and 51 to the group of medium-sized companies over the 2018-2022 period. The results have shown that there is a statistically significant negative correlation between the determinants of profitability, liquidity and solvency and the probability of financial distress. In addition, it was shown that there is a statistically significant positive correlation between leverage and the probability of financial distress, as well as between company growth and the Altman Z-score indicator. It is concluded that there is a statistically significant difference in the value of the Altman Z-score indicator before and after the onset of the pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus.
The paper discusses market trends and analyzes the regularities that appear on the Serbian national housing market and regional submarkets. It is assumed that, apart from the common market driving forces, the market for newly constructed houses and the market for the existing housing stock behave like two separate segments of the housing market with the imperfect adjustment of prices. The prime focus of the analysis is on the divergence between the prices in those two segments, with a special interest in the process of mutual adjustments. Granger causality tests are employed in order to reveal whether there is a causal relationship between the price indices in those two segments and it has been found that there is a causality relation between the existing housing market and the newly constructed house market prevailing among the regional submarkets. The same methodology is applied to test if there is any such causality between the regional markets. The results have confirmed a likely influence of the Belgrade new construction market on the other regional markets. The findings will help understand the process of price adjustments between the two market segments and will lead to policy recommendations.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of financial technology (Fintech) on the inflation rate. The contribution reflects in the creation of a new index for Fintech, involving several indicators using principal component analysis. The data utilized belong to a panel dataset pertaining to the 10 provinces of the island of Sumatra, Indonesia, spanning from January 2020 to June 2023. The pooled mean group (PMG) estimation method is employed in order to test the relationship between Fintech and the inflation rate. The research findings of the study indicate that Fintech is capable of reducing inflation in the long run. Therefore, this research study implies the necessity to intensify the use of Fintech for the purpose of creating an efficient economic environment and promoting economic stability.