This paper investigates the effects of RCEP trade creation and trade diversion on China and its sectors, as well as the impact of imports and exports on provinces. The World Bank’s World Integrated Trade Solution Software for Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (WITS-SMART) tool with the 2020 data, alongside the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables and the Chinese Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) tables based on the 2017 data under two scenarios. The results of the study indicate that trade growth with Japan and South Korea is significant, on the one hand, whereas the trade effects with the ASEAN nations and regions such as Australia and New Zealand are relatively low, on the other. The research emphasizes the disparities between various regions in China, demonstrating that the Eastern coastal provinces obtain more trade benefits than the Central and Western areas. The study highlights the importance of implementing the policies encouraging collaboration in high-growth sectors and developing tailored strategies for regional advancement.
Goran Nikolić1 and Predrag Petrović2
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a gradual slowdown in the, otherwise strong, growth of the Chinese economy in the first half of the 2020s, and the anemic growth of the Western economies: the US and, especially, the EU27. Given the practical (and symbolic) importance of reaching ‘the number one economy’ status, the primary objective of the paper is to estimate the GDP (and the GDP PPP) of the observed economies over the next decade. The main contribution and finding of this paper is the estimation of future GDP trends for the US, China and the EU27 in the period 2025-30, based on the previous trends and the IMF 2020-24 projections. China’s economy will become globally leading in 2029-2030. The basic research hypothesis is proven, given the fact that a change in the global economic position implies significant geopolitical consequences. Namely, while the US will almost certainly remain the leading global power in the 2020s, with the EU still continuing to focus on itself, China’s economic growth will have rising global consequences, fueling the move towards the dispersion of authority. This conclusion is in line with the claims of the majority of the relevant authors who emphasize the increasingly limited possibility of the US unilateral actions.