Emilija Janković
A large number of papers indicate stylized facts related to the business cycles of different countries. However, the business cycle is a very complex phenomenon, which is not easy to measure and interpret. Therefore, in addition to the gross domestic product (GDP) as a standard measure of the business cycle, it is useful to analyze the cyclical behavior of the GDP components, the labor market variables, as well as nominal variables. This paper attempts to identify patterns in their movements during the period from the first quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2023. The goal is to provide a general overview of business cycles in contemporary developments within the European Union as a whole, Germany being the most developed EU country, with reference to the Republic of Serbia. Detailed statistical time series analysis was used to examine stylized facts, as well as the volatility of these variables, their correlation with the GDP, and their persistence. The general conclusion implies that the business cycle of Serbia does not lag behind more developed countries. Some observations were also made of the common tendencies that could be valid in most cases.
Mikica Drenovak and Vladimir Ranković
Active portfolio management implies periodic rebalancing, i.e. a change in the structure of the existing portfolio. Rebalancing is aimed at improving the performance of the managed portfolio by adjusting it with respect to the given objective. The main objective of this research is to test two portfolio rebalancing strategies, one based on market risk and another on optimal risk-return tradeoff. We use optimal volatility or Sharpe of portfolio as a criterion for the initial portfolio allocation and rebalancing over the observed period. In order to obtain solutions that can be applied in practice, we impose rebalance triggers designed to control the portfolio turnover and corresponding transaction costs. the results suggest that the minimum volatility strategy can be accepted as an eligible investment alternative for risk adverse investors since it provides superior risk performance compared to the reference S&P 100 index and 1/n portfolio, with a relatively low level of turnover and a low rebalance frequency.