UKRAINE’S SOCIO-ECONOMIC RESILIENCE IN THE FACE OF SHOCKS: SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING

This paper aims to assess the socio-economic resilience of Ukraine’s regions in the face of shocks, including the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, territorial annexation, the 2014 socio-political crisis, and the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic. The comprehensive methodological approach applied in this paper combines the construction of temporal and spatial composite indicators of the labor market, and social, demographic, and economic development, with the identification of shock-related losses, the recovery capacity, and the dynamics of vulnerability and recovery. The framework distinguishes between immediate losses and the long-term adaptive capacity. The empirical results show that the two major shocks (the 2014 crisis and the 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic) caused significant regional losses, with the deepest labor market decline in Donetska Oblast and Luhanska Oblast and higher resilience in the western and central regions. Vulnerability lasted for two to three years, while recovery exceeded four years. Overall, resilience depends not only on overcoming immediate shocks but also on strengthening demographic stability, the institutional capacity, and adaptive mechanisms to ensure sustainable postwar recovery.