U radu se istražuju izvozne performanse članica CEFTA 2006 (Albanija, Bosna i Hercegovina – BiH, Crna Gora, Kosovo* (UNMIK, prema Rezoluciji 1244 Saveta bezbednosti Ujedinjenih nacija), Moldavija, Severna Makedonija i Srbija), koristeći ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model. Primenom F-Bound ARDL testa za period 2000-2022. utvrđeno je postojanje dugoročne ravnotežne veze između realnog izvoza robe i usluga članica CEFTA 2006 i izabranih varijabli, pri čemu rezultati ukazuju na razlike u značaju pojedinih varijabli na dug rok između zemalja. Izvozne performanse uglavnom zavise od stepena otvorenosti trgovine (kod većine članica), zatim od realnog efektivnog deviznog kursa (BiH, Kosovo*, Srbija), dok je manji značaj neto priliva SDI (s izuzetkom Srbije) i domaćih bankarskih kredita odobrenih privatnom sektoru (s izuzetkom Kosova*).
Joshua Adeyemi Afolabi
Technological advancement continues to revolutionize the labor market and has particularly intensified the debate on its employment effect across developing and developed economies. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework, this study provides insights into the employment-innovation nexus across the Nigerian economic sectors using the quarterly data from 2011Q1 to 2021Q4. The findings reveal that the employment-innovation nexus is a short-run phenomenon in Nigeria and that technological innovation enhances employment generation in the service sector and the agricultural sector, but it takes a quarter before the positive employment effect occurs. Overall, the results suggest that technological innovation improves employment and reallocates labor across the sectors, which suggests the need to fully operationalize technological innovation across the Nigerian economic sectors in order to tackle the prevailing unemployment conundrum in the country.