Predviđanje finansijskih teškoća u kompanijama je veoma značajno, imajući u vidu komplesknost i dinamičnost savremenog poslovnog okruženja. Shodno tome, predmet istraživanja u radu su ključne determinante nastupanja finansijskih neprilika, koje mogu dovesti i do stečaja kompanija. Cilj istraživanja je utvrđivanje međuzavisnosti (korelacije) pojedinih determinanti nastupanja finansijskih neprilika i pokazatelja verovatnoće nastupanja finansijskih neprilika, kao i utvrđivanje razlike u verovatnoći nastupanja finansijskih neprilika pre i nakon pojave pandemije izazvane virusom COVID-19 u Republici Srbiji. Istraživanje je sprovedeno na uzorku od 73 javna akcionarska društava, od kojih 22 pripada grupi velikih, a 51 grupi kompanija srednje veličine, tokom perioda 2018-2022. Rezultati istraživanja su pokazali da postoji statistički značajna negativna korelacija determinanti profitabilnosti, likvidnosti i solventnosti i verovatnoće nastupanja finansijskih neprilika. Takođe, pokazali su da postoji statistički značajna pozitivna korelacija leveridža i verovatnoće nastupanja finansijskih neprilika, kao i između rasta kompanije i pokazatelja Altman-ovog Z-score-a. Došlo se i do zaključka da postoji statistički značajna razlika u vrednosti pokazatelja Altman-ovog Z-score-a pre i nakon pojave pandemije izazvane virusom COVID-19.
Malči Grivec1 and Srečko Devjak2
In this paper, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the savings of Slovenian households in banks is explored. For this purpose, an econometric model is developed and the macroeconomic variables exerting a statistically significant impact on household deposits in banks are identified. Among all the macroeconomic variables considered in the paper, the research study has shown that there are only two macroeconomic variables with a statistically significant impact. These two macroeconomic variables are the Euro Overnight Index Average (EONIA) reference interest rate used as a proxy variable for the rate of return, and the price of one Bitcoin as a yield on an alternative investment opportunity. The results of this research study are important for both the Central Government in Slovenia and for Slovenia’s banks as household deposits are a source of funding for banks in the time of a crisis as well, and because of the fact that the volume of the loans granted accelerates the GDP growth, which shows the successful implementation of the economic policy.
Muntazir Hussain1, Irfan Saleem1 and Usman Bashir2
This study aims to investigate the dynamics of the interest rates and exchange rates during the pandemic-induced crisis in the Chinese economy. In the study, rolling window detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) was used. The DCCA coefficient was extracted based on detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The data used in the study are the daily data of the period from 2/1/2019 to 7/5/2021. The results obtained in the study suggest the presence of positive cross-correlation between China’s interest rate and exchange rate after the COVID-19 pandemic, and they also report the existence of weak positive cross-correlation during the initial days of the pandemic. However, the weak positive cross-correlation became stronger over time. Higher interest rates are associated with higher exchange rates after the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of the research study have policy implications in that conventional higher interest rates introduced to defend the exchange rate might fail during pandemic-induced crises.
Hasnan Baber1 and D. Tripati Rao2
The decision on immediate lockdown in India put economic, social and religious activities to a grinding halt. The paper examines the impact of the lockdown and social distancing policies on economic activities in India, using a multivariate econometric model for the data collected in the period from 1st January to 31st August 2020. While the social distancing policy is captured in terms of internal movement, domestic travel and international travel restrictions, its effect on the economic activity and the business activity is captured through stock prices, purchasing managers’ index and the exchange rate. Confirmed COVID-19 cases and related deaths are also used as the independent variables. The results reveal a significant negative impact of social distancing policies on the economic activity and the business activity, the stock market and the exchange rate. Furthermore, the economic stimulus provided by the Government could not bring a positive influence on the stock market.