Haryo Kuncoro1 and Fafurida Fafurida2
Whether macroeconomic fundamentals affect the exchange rate volatility in emerging markets with an inflation-targeting regime or not is highly challenging. In this paper, the impact of the current account deficits and foreign reserves on the volatility of real exchange rates. Applying threshold quantile regression models related to Indonesia over the period from 2005(7) to 2021(12), it is concluded that both variables play an important role in controlling the exchange rate instability. Both coefficients are also found to have an upward linear pattern. The asymmetric impact of current account balance holds. Claiming that a two-percent current account deficit in the GDP is the safe amount of the deficit that will not significantly affect the foreign-exchange rate is justified as such. The asymmetric behavior of the current account balance has the potential to trigger real exchange rate volatility, thereby undermining the monetary policy within the framework of the inflation targeting regime. Accordingly, the optimal stock of foreign reserves might avoid imposing dual goals of inflation targeting and exchange rate stability.
Nenad Stanišić
There are various benefits which countries could derive from the renouncement of a national currency hallmarked by unstable external and internal values. The most evident one is the reduction of a long-term inflation rate. The objective of this paper is to test the hypothesis of the positive influence which monetary integration exerts on monetary stability and economic growth. On the other hand, monetary integration can also cause certain economic problems to countries’ economies, such as the one of the balance-of-payments adjustment. Hence this paper surveys its infl uence on the current account balance of national economies. The hypotheses are tested empirically by examining the sample of 42 countries from different regions and of different development levels. The results suggest that the monetary integration influences the inflation reduction in developing countries, but not the achieved economic growth rates. At the same time, the results indicate that monetary integration contributes to an increase in the current account deficit of developing countries, but not of developed ones.