Haryo Kuncoro1 and Fafurida Fafurida2
Whether macroeconomic fundamentals affect the exchange rate volatility in emerging markets with an inflation-targeting regime or not is highly challenging. In this paper, the impact of the current account deficits and foreign reserves on the volatility of real exchange rates. Applying threshold quantile regression models related to Indonesia over the period from 2005(7) to 2021(12), it is concluded that both variables play an important role in controlling the exchange rate instability. Both coefficients are also found to have an upward linear pattern. The asymmetric impact of current account balance holds. Claiming that a two-percent current account deficit in the GDP is the safe amount of the deficit that will not significantly affect the foreign-exchange rate is justified as such. The asymmetric behavior of the current account balance has the potential to trigger real exchange rate volatility, thereby undermining the monetary policy within the framework of the inflation targeting regime. Accordingly, the optimal stock of foreign reserves might avoid imposing dual goals of inflation targeting and exchange rate stability.
Jože Mencinger
Current account deficit, initially created by the stabilization policies during transition has become a distinct feature of CEE countries. The structure of the deficit has been gradually changing and the predominant role has been taken over by the investment account deficit. This is an inevitable outcome of CEE “addiction” to FDI. The linkage between FDI and current account balance is presented by a simple three equations model which relates FDI to the investment and trade accounts. The panel data for eight CEE countries in the 1996-2008 period are used. to estimate the rates of returns on foreign investments which determine outflows through the investment account and the effects of FDI on the trade account. The world financial crisis diminished both inflows of FDI and outflows of profits generated by FDI while severing the problems of enormous negative net financial position of the countries.