Selim Gungor1 and Muge Saglam Bezgin2
This study aims to analyze the effect energy-related uncertainty has on the volatility of the stock markets of 18 developed and developing countries ranking among the wealthiest according to their GDP. The study focuses on understanding how EUI influences market dynamics and volatility patterns across different economies. Using the GARCH-MIDAS approach, this research examines stock market indices from January 2003 to October 2022. The analysis reveals that all stock market indices are influenced by EUI. Notably, the S&P-TSX index exhibits the lowest MIDAS weight, indicating that Canada’s market volatility is the least affected by EUI. Conversely, the highest MIDAS component weights are observed in the markets of China and the United Kingdom. The EUI shows the greatest influence on the volatility of the Indian and Chinese markets, whereas its influence is minimal on the Brazilian and Canadian markets.
Obukohwo Oba Efayena1, Jonathan Ojarikre Oniore2 and Ngozi Patricia Buzugbe1
This study x-rays the moderating influence of institutional quality on the relationship between the financial structure (FS) and economic growth in 33 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies from 2006 to 2022, based on income classification. Aptly utilizing the two-step fixed-effects generalized method of moments, the investigation found that, among the low-income countries, those bank- and market-oriented were associated with the lower and higher levels of economic growth, respectively, whereas among the middle-income countries, those bank- and market-oriented financial structures were associated with the higher and lower levels of economic growth, respectively. Notably, the study establishes that institutional quality does not substantially spur the financial structure to positively contribute to economic growth. The disaggregated outcomes show that prevailing institutional quality mitigates the growth effects of the financial structures of the middle-income economies, whereas it does significantly exacerbate decelerating economic growth among the low-income ones. The study recommends the adoption of policies to strengthen institutional quality, as well as the enhancement of the synergy between the banking sector and the capital market.
The paper investigates the export performance of the CEFTA 2006 countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina – BiH, Montenegro, Kosovo* (UNMIK, according to the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244), Moldova, North Macedonia and Serbia)), using the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model. By applying the F-Bound ARDL test for the period from 2000 to 2022, the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the real exports of the CEFTA 2006 members and the selected variables was determined, the results indicating differences in the significance of certain variables in the long run. Export performance mainly depends on the degree of trade openness (for most members), then the real effective exchange rate (BiH, Kosovo*, Serbia), while the net inflow of FDI (except Serbia) and the domestic bank loans granted to the private sector are less important (with the exception of Kosovo*).
This study applies the Theory of Planned Behavior to investigate the impact of personal attitudes towards entrepreneurship, social norms, and perceived behavioral control on students’ entrepreneurial intentions. Conducted on a sample of 184 students in Croatia, the research study applies the practical adaptation of the TPB model so as to reflect the realistic context in which students develop their entrepreneurial intentions. The multiple regression analysis conducted in the study reveals that all the components of the theory positively and significantly affect entrepreneurial intentions. The most influential factor is perceived behavioral control, only to be followed by personal attitude and social norms. These findings enhance the understanding of the critical elements shaping students’ entrepreneurial aspirations. Additionally, the study offers useful information for higher education institutions, helping them understand students’ entrepreneurial behavior and guiding the development of targeted programs and internal policies. Ultimately, this research serves as a valuable resource for a broader academic community to help them design the strategies that promote students’ entrepreneurial ambitions.
Investors are faced with the challenge of identifying the most promising companies for their potential investment in the stock market. This research study aims to propose a systematic approach to the selection of top-listed companies for investment, focusing on the two levels of analysis – the ratio analysis based on liquidity and profitability, and the multi-criteria ranking using the PROMETHEE method. The observed companies are divided into two groups: group A, which includes companies with a PE ratio above 50, and group B, which includes companies with a PE ratio below 5. The findings of the study highlight the fact that companies with higher PE ratios tend to exhibit better overall business performance as observed on an individual basis and based on the ratio analysis. Although there are noticeable differences in the ratio indicators between the companies, these differences are not significant when the overall review is considered. The combination of ratio analysis and the PROMETHEE method provides an effective method for evaluating their business performance, giving guidance to investors and decision-makers in selecting the most promising investment opportunities. The results of the multi-criteria ranking show that the companies that belong to group B have a better rank than the others, and that investors should invest in the companies Vale S.A. and Tesla, Inc. as well.
Considering the significance of the Internet and communication with consumers in the online environment primarily through social media, as well as the growing importance of sustainability in modern business, this paper aims to analyze consumer behavior regarding green products in the context of social media. Specifically, social media marketing activities of local and global companies in the Republic of Serbia were analyzed, incorporating the five aspects: entertainment, interaction, trendiness, customization, and electronic word-of-mouth. Empirical research was conducted using the survey method and the SEM analysis was applied so as to determine that the mentioned aspects of social media differently affected the attitudes towards the green products of local and global companies. A positive moderating influence of the global identity on the relationships in the models was found. The main contribution of the paper relates to the analysis of the relationship between social media marketing activities and consumer behavior towards green products, with a comparative analysis of local and global companies.
Emilija Janković
A large number of papers indicate stylized facts related to the business cycles of different countries. However, the business cycle is a very complex phenomenon, which is not easy to measure and interpret. Therefore, in addition to the gross domestic product (GDP) as a standard measure of the business cycle, it is useful to analyze the cyclical behavior of the GDP components, the labor market variables, as well as nominal variables. This paper attempts to identify patterns in their movements during the period from the first quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2023. The goal is to provide a general overview of business cycles in contemporary developments within the European Union as a whole, Germany being the most developed EU country, with reference to the Republic of Serbia. Detailed statistical time series analysis was used to examine stylized facts, as well as the volatility of these variables, their correlation with the GDP, and their persistence. The general conclusion implies that the business cycle of Serbia does not lag behind more developed countries. Some observations were also made of the common tendencies that could be valid in most cases.
Mohammed Shuaibu and Usman Gana
Nigeria’s poor non-oil export performance has been the focal point of the growth policy discourse since the 1970s, but the role of emerging driving factors has remained significantly less understood. Thus, this study explores the determinants of Nigeria’s non-oil exports by explicitly considering trade credit and digital payment systems. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model and the monthly data from 2010 to 2023 so as to achieve its objective. The results show that increased trade credit and better e-payment systems significantly improve the non-oil export sector’s performance. The one implication of this finding is that increasing trade credit and improving e-payment systems may serve as another alternative to unlocking and boosting Nigeria’s non-oil export sector’s potential. Therefore, the paper concludes that, with the promotion of trade credit and an increased use of e-payments, Nigeria can improve its non-oil export performance in order to foster sustainable economic growth.
This paper investigates the effects of RCEP trade creation and trade diversion on China and its sectors, as well as the impact of imports and exports on provinces. The World Bank’s World Integrated Trade Solution Software for Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (WITS-SMART) tool with the 2020 data, alongside the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables and the Chinese Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) tables based on the 2017 data under two scenarios. The results of the study indicate that trade growth with Japan and South Korea is significant, on the one hand, whereas the trade effects with the ASEAN nations and regions such as Australia and New Zealand are relatively low, on the other. The research emphasizes the disparities between various regions in China, demonstrating that the Eastern coastal provinces obtain more trade benefits than the Central and Western areas. The study highlights the importance of implementing the policies encouraging collaboration in high-growth sectors and developing tailored strategies for regional advancement.
Forecasting financial distress in companies is very significant bearing in mind the complexity and dynamics of the modern business environment. Accordingly, the subject matter of this research study is the determinants of the occurrence of the financial distress that may lead a company to bankruptcy. The study is aimed at determining the interdependence (correlation) between certain determinants of the occurrence of financial distress and the indicators of the probability of the occurrence of financial distress and considering the difference in the probability of the occurrence of financial distress before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Serbia. The research was conducted on a sample of 73 publicly traded companies, of which 22 belong to the group of big companies, and 51 to the group of medium-sized companies over the 2018-2022 period. The results have shown that there is a statistically significant negative correlation between the determinants of profitability, liquidity and solvency and the probability of financial distress. In addition, it was shown that there is a statistically significant positive correlation between leverage and the probability of financial distress, as well as between company growth and the Altman Z-score indicator. It is concluded that there is a statistically significant difference in the value of the Altman Z-score indicator before and after the onset of the pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus.